Key Highlights
- Andaman and Nicobar Islands now have the nation’s lowest Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 0.9, far under the 2.1 replacement threshold.
- The TFR fell from 1.3 in NFHS‑5 to 0.9 in NFHS‑6, indicating a rapid decline.
- Children under five fell from 5.3% to 3.7% of the population; those under 15 dropped from 20.8% to 17.5%.
- Residents aged 60+ increased from 11% to 12.6%, signalling an ageing demographic.
- Factors such as higher female education, greater economic security, and wider use of family‑planning methods are driving smaller family norms.
Detailed Insights
The sixth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS‑6) released by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare shows that the Andaman and Nicobar Union Territory now exhibits a Total Fertility Rate of just 0.9. This figure is markedly lower than the biological replacement level of 2.1, suggesting that, without in‑migration, the territory’s population will shrink over the coming decades.
Comparatively, the TFR has slipped from 1.4 in NFHS‑4 to 1.3 in NFHS‑5 and now to 0.9, marking a steeper decline than observed in any other Indian state or union territory. The shrinking proportion of children is evident: the share of the under‑five cohort declined from 5.3% to 3.7%, while the share of those younger than 15 fell from 20.8% to 17.5% between the two surveys.
Concurrently, the elderly segment (aged 60 and above) rose from 11% to 12.6%, indicating a gradual shift toward an ageing population structure. This transition may place added strain on healthcare, pension, and social‑welfare systems, while reducing the pool of working‑age individuals.
Researchers attribute the fertility drop to multiple inter‑related drivers: a cultural shift toward one‑child families, expanded access to modern contraceptives, higher female literacy and educational attainment, improved household incomes, and greater financial autonomy for women. The islands’ relatively low unemployment and elevated education levels align with global patterns where socioeconomic progress coincides with reduced fertility.
Key Concepts
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman is expected to bear over her reproductive lifespan, used as a principal demographic indicator.
- Replacement Level Fertility: A TFR of approximately 2.1, considered sufficient for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next, absent migration.
- Demographic Transition: The shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, frequently accompanied by urbanisation, education, and economic development.
- Age‑Structure Shift: Changes in the proportion of different age cohorts within a population, often moving from youth‑heavy to elderly‑heavy profiles.
- Family‑Planning Methods: Medical or behavioural techniques—such as contraception, sterilisation, or spacing strategies—designed to enable individuals or couples to determine if and when to have children.