Key Highlights
- The national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell to 1.9 children per woman in 2024, moving below the 2.1 replacement benchmark.
- Regional disparities are stark: Bihar records the highest TFR at 2.9, while Delhi posts the lowest at 1.2.
- Southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu exhibit advanced demographic transition with ageing populations, whereas northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh remain youthful and fertile.
- The General Fertility Rate (GFR) dropped 18% from 78.8 to 64.6 births per 1,000 women (15‑49 years) between 2012‑14 and 2022‑24.
- Child‑mortality indicators reveal a persistent urban‑rural gap and a concentration of neonatal deaths within the first month of life.
Detailed Insights
According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, India’s TFR declined dramatically from 4.6 in 1985 to 1.9 in 2024. This shift signals a move toward a more stable population pyramid, yet the average masks considerable state‑level variation. Bihar’s fertility remains the highest in the nation (2.9), reflecting slower socio‑economic progress, whereas Delhi’s TFR of 1.2 indicates the sharpest deceleration over the past decade.
The demographic divide between the south and north is widening. Kerala and Tamil Nadu have already entered the late stages of the demographic transition, characterized by low fertility, rising life expectancy, and a growing share of residents aged 60 +. In contrast, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh retain a youthful age structure, with almost one‑third of their populations under 14 years.
General Fertility Rate analysis shows an 18 % contraction nationwide, with rural GFR falling from 86.2 to 71.9 and urban GFR from 61.2 to 51.0. Delhi experienced the steepest urban decline; Bihar, despite its high rural GFR, posted the nation’s highest overall figure (96.0). Notably, urban Bihar was the sole major region where GFR rose marginally during the decade.
Child health outcomes remain uneven. Under‑Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) stands at 41 in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, but only 9 in Kerala. Rural areas record a U5MR of 32 versus 19 in urban locales, underscoring gaps in healthcare access, nutrition, and sanitation.
Neonatal mortality dominates infant deaths: 52.7 % of infant fatalities occur within the first week, and 72.8 % within the first 28 days. Institutional deliveries have risen to 71.7 % of all births, driven by schemes such as Janani Suraksha Yojana and expanded public health infrastructure.
The sex ratio at birth remains skewed, with 918 girls per 1,000 boys nationally (2022‑24). Uttarakhand registers the lowest ratio (872), while Chhattisgarh records the highest (978). Finally, access to qualified medical care at the time of death is limited: 45.5 % of deaths occur without professional assistance, with rural areas faring worse (48.9 %). Only 40.2 % of deaths happen in hospitals, split between government (24.7 %) and private (15.5 %) facilities.