Key Highlights
- World Bank’s Neutral Expert, Michel Lino, declared his competence to resolve the technical impasse over the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric schemes.
- The ruling validates India’s long‑standing interpretation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and revitalises the treaty’s staged dispute‑resolution mechanism.
- Pakistan’s objections—centered on alleged manipulation of western‑river flows—were deemed outside the scope of its challenges.
- India continues to push for a treaty review, citing demographic pressure, energy needs, and security concerns.
Detailed Insights
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed on 19 September 1960 under World Bank auspices, allocates the three eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, Sutlej) wholly to India and the three western rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum) primarily to Pakistan, permitting limited Indian use for irrigation, navigation and run‑of‑the‑river power generation. India exploits roughly 30 % of the total Indus basin flow, while Pakistan uses the remaining 70 %.
Disagreement erupted over two run‑of‑the‑river projects in Jammu and Kashmir: the Kishenganga HEP on a Jhelum tributary and the Ratle HEP on the Chenab. Pakistan argued that design features permit India to throttle downstream releases, thereby violating Article III(1) of the IWT. India countered that storage is minimal and conforms to Annexure F, Part I specifications.
After Pakistan withdrew its 2015 request for a Neutral Expert and sought recourse to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in 2016, India invoked Article IX, demanding the matter return to a Neutral Expert before the PCA could be approached. In October 2022 the World Bank appointed Michel Lino as Neutral Expert and simultaneously opened PCA proceedings, which India boycotted as inconsistent with the treaty.
On 7 January 2025 Lino issued an award stating that the “Points of Difference” raised by India fall squarely within his jurisdiction, overturning Pakistan’s claim of limited remit. This decision re‑energises the IWT’s hierarchy—Indus Commissioners, then Neutral Expert, and finally the PCA—and demonstrates the treaty’s resilience despite recurring bilateral frictions.
India has since issued two formal notices (January 2023 and September 2024) demanding treaty modification or, alternatively, its renegotiation, invoking Article XII(3) on “fundamental and unforeseen changes” such as rising water demand, climate‑driven environmental stress, and the security fallout from cross‑border terrorism.
Key Concepts
- Neutral Expert: An independent technical arbiter appointed under the IWT to address specific engineering disputes before recourse to international arbitration.
- Run‑of‑the‑River Project: A hydroelectric scheme that diverts water without creating large reservoirs, thereby preserving the river’s natural flow.
- Annexure F, Part I: The technical annex of the IWT that delineates permissible design parameters for Indian projects on western rivers.
- Article XII(3): Provision allowing amendment of the treaty when either party experiences fundamental, unforeseen changes in circumstances.