Key Highlights
- On 13 March 2025, the two governments approved the final wording of a peace treaty that could end the Nagorno‑Karabakh war that has lasted since the late 1980s.
- Azerbaijan demands a constitutional amendment in Yerevan as a pre‑condition for signing, creating uncertainty over the exact signing date.
- The accord blocks third‑party military deployment along the 1,000 km frontier, limiting EU monitoring missions and Russian border patrols.
- Both capitals have voiced intentions to normalise relations and demilitarise the border, despite lingering rhetoric from leaders.
Detailed Insights
The protracted dispute over Nagorno‑Karabakh erupted in the waning years of the Soviet Union when the majority‑Armenian enclave sought independence from Azerbaijan, backed by Yerevan. Two full‑scale wars and repeated population displacements followed, culminating in Baku’s seizure of the territory in September 2023, which forced roughly 100,000 ethnic Armenians to seek refuge in Armenia.
After intensive diplomatic shuffling, the parties struck a textual agreement on 13 March 2025. Armenia’s Foreign Ministry announced that the draft is ready for signing and has invited discussions on the ceremony’s venue and timing. Baku’s foreign officials expressed satisfaction with the wording but reiterated that Yerevan must revise its constitution, which Baku interprets as containing implicit territorial claims.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has indicated willingness to organise a constitutional referendum, yet a concrete timetable remains absent. Meanwhile, the treaty explicitly bars the deployment of external armed forces along the common border, curbing the European Union’s planned monitoring mission—opposed by Azerbaijan—and limiting the presence of Russian border guards in certain Armenian sectors.
Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, the atmosphere remains fragile. President Ilham Aliyev labelled Armenia a “fascist threat” in January 2025, underscoring deep‑seated mistrust. Both governments, however, publicly endorse a future of normalized diplomatic ties and a demilitarised frontier.
Key Concepts
- Constitutional amendment clause – Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia alter its supreme law to eliminate perceived territorial assertions before the treaty can be signed.
- Third‑party deployment prohibition – A provision that prevents foreign militaries, including EU observers and Russian guards, from operating along the Armenia‑Azerbaijan border.
- Referendum – The public vote that Armenia may hold to legitimise changes to its constitution as stipulated by the peace framework.
- Demilitarisation – The agreed‑upon reduction or removal of armed forces from the 1,000 km shared border to reduce the risk of accidental clashes.