Key Highlights
- Wholesale volumes expected to climb 3–5% YoY during FY26, overturning the 1.2% contraction seen in FY25.
- Growth is primarily buoyed by a revival in construction and infrastructure projects, yet elevated inventory levels limit the upside.
- Light commercial trucks are projected to gain 3–5% in volume, whereas medium‑heavy trucks are poised for a modest 0–3% rise.
- Bus sales are slated to surge 8–10% as replacement demand drives the segment.
- A persistent preference for pre‑owned vehicles continues to erode new LCV sales.
Detailed Insights
Sector Dynamics – The commercial vehicle landscape has slipped slightly in FY25 but is now on course for a moderate rebound in FY26. This trajectory is powered by the resumption of construction and infrastructure activity, a recovering mining sector, and robust replacement demand.
Segment Performance – Light trucks are likely to lead growth, while heavy trucks will see a minimal uptick. Buses, driven largely by the need to renew aging fleets, are expected to outperform other categories.
Headwinds – Persistently high dealer inventories signal a disconnect between production output and retail uptake. Geopolitical turbulence has slowed heavy‑truck sales in certain regions, and consumers’ leaning towards used vehicles continues to pressure OEMs.
Key Concepts
- Commercial Vehicle (CV) – Any vehicle, light or heavy, primarily used for transporting goods or passengers.
- Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) – Wheeled units up to 3.5 tonnes for commercial use.
- Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV) – Vehicles exceeding 3.5 tonnes, often used for bulk transport.
- OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) – Entity that constructs the base vehicle before distributors sell it.
- Replacement Demand – Market pressure to replace out‑of‑service or outdated vehicle fleets.